In contrast, upper-level conditions become increasingly favorable as the day progresses due to an upper-level trough drifting westward, placing T&T and much of the Windwards under an upper-level diffluent pattern (winds move away and apart, enhancing convection). Low-level conditions will be favorable through Monday morning. Trinidad is set to see some of the highest 24-hour rainfall totals for 2022 to date on Monday as a highly moist and favorable environment associated with the approach and passage of Tropical Wave 08 will fuel heavy showers and thunderstorms. Few showers have been noted near the wave axis. This wave is forecast to move across T&T late Tuesday, June 14th, 2022, into Wednesday, June 15th, 2022. The ninth tropical wave for 2022 is along 35°W, south of 14°N, and moving west at 20 knots (37 KM/H).Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is ongoing, mainly near the coast of South America. This wave is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago overnight tonight (Sunday) into Monday.
The eighth tropical wave for 2022 is along 55/56°W, south of 20°N, moving west at 20 knots (37 KM/H).Tropical Waves East of T&T: Based on the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch’s 18Z surface analysis on June 12th, 2022, as well as the latest satellite and model guidance: For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters within 24 hours, and rainfall would have to fall across major rivers’ catchment areas. Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates in excess of 50 millimeters per hour or areas that receive in excess of 25 millimeters within an hour tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. Friday: Less than 5 millimeters of rain across the country, with isolated higher pockets favoring eastern and southern coastal areas.Across Tobago, isolated totals could exceed 25 millimeters. Thursday: Between 5 and 15 millimeters across the country, trending higher across eastern Trinidad and Tobago with isolated totals up to 25 millimeters.Across Tobago, isolated totals could reach/exceed 30 millimeters. Wednesday: Between 5 and 15 millimeters across the country, trending higher across northern and western areas of Trinidad with isolated totals up to and in excess of 25 millimeters.There are no alerts, watches, or warnings in effect for T&T at this time. Alerts/Watches/Warnings: The Adverse Weather Alert (Yellow Level) has been discontinued by the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service at 2:34 PM Monday. Gusty winds are possible through Wednesday, up to and in excess of 45 KM/H accompanying heavy showers or thunderstorms. Close attention should be paid to the North and South Oropouche River Basins, as well as the Ortire River Basins through Tuesday. The chances for riverine flooding across the country remain low at this time.
Hazards: The main hazards remain street/ flash flooding from Monday through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers are possible again on Wednesday, with rainfall subsiding by the latter half of the week. Rainfall: On Monday, periods of light to moderate rain, heavy to violent showers, and isolated thunderstorms are forecast, continuing into early Tuesday. By Thursday, moderate to high concentrations of Saharan Dust returns to T&T. Saharan Dust: Low levels of Saharan Dust are forecast from Monday through late Tuesday, with a gradual increase in dust concentrations on Wednesday.